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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.